Oscars 2026 Predictions: Who Will and Should Win
It’s almost time for the end of awards season — the 98th Academy Awards will air live on March 15.
What a year, and more importantly — what a chaotic one. We’re entering the ceremony with so much uncertainty about the winners that it’s genuinely exciting. But it’s time to lock in my personal predictions and highlight my favorites.
Best International Feature Film
Will Win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident (France)
What a fantastic category! I would happily split the award between It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and Sentimental Value, but It Was Just an Accident had that extra kick that kept me glued to my seat with its suspense, storytelling, and bravery.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should Win: One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
It was perfect. No notes.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Should Win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
The idea and the daring concept are fantastic and should be celebrated.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Should Win: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
One of the biggest wildcards this year. Again, everyone here is great. For me, the most memorable performance was Teyana Taylor, but I do think the BAFTA win could do wonders for Wunmi Mosaku. Amy Madigan is a great underdog that everyone is rooting for, and it could be a beautiful moment of the evening, but I don’t feel like it’s enough of a possibility to predict it. Anyway, good luck to all of them.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Should Win: Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Again, a wild category — don’t underestimate the surprise that could come from Delroy Lindo. And while my heart goes to the beautiful performance by Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn really deserves this win.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Should Win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
What can I even add? The easiest win of the decade. Bravo!
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Should Win: Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
It honestly feels like a 50/50 game — either Sinners or One Battle After Another could have a triumphant night. At this moment, I have a hunch it might be Sinners, and they’ll likely need at least one acting win to secure Best Picture. For me, Wagner Moura was the definition of a lead actor, and the film is amazing.
Best Directing
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
It’s time. It’s the film. It’s the moment.
Best Picture (My Personal Ranking)
#1 Hamnet
#2 One Battle After Another
#3 The Secret Agent
#4 Sentimental Value
#5 Sinners
#6 Bugonia
#7 Marty Supreme
#8 Frankenstein
#9 Train Dreams
#10 F1
Who I think is going to win: One Battle After Another
But again, at this point it’s a 50/50 gamble with Sinners.
